West Coast population projections challenged by local growth trends

Stats NZ has just released its latest subnational population projections for New Zealand’s regions, outlining high, medium, and low scenarios. Under their medium projection, the West Coast is the only region in the country expected to see a population decline by 2053.

Development West Coast (DWC) chief executive Heath Milne says the projections paint a familiar picture, but one that doesn’t reflect the momentum now underway on the Coast.

“The last time Stats NZ released subnational population projections (2018 base), the story was much the same, the Coast’s population was expected to decline,” Milne said.

“Their medium scenario put us at 33,300 people by 2023, yet the latest Census showed our population well above even their high-growth scenario. The Coast’s population reached 34,400 in 2024.”

Milne acknowledged forecasting is always difficult, particularly for regions like the West Coast that have gone through sharp economic cycles.

“The Coast went through a prolonged slump between 2012 and 2018, and we do face structural demographic challenges, our median age is the highest in New Zealand at 48.1, compared with 38.1 nationally. It’s understandable that any forecast pumped out by a spreadsheet would point to long-term decline,” he said.

But, Milne said, the latest projections don’t account for the scale of change now happening across the region.

According to Stats NZ, employment on the West Coast grew by 1.1 percent in the year to July, compared with a 0.8 percent decline nationally, making the Coast one of the few regions currently adding jobs. SEEK’s latest job report also shows the Coast leading the country, with a 35 percent increase in job listings in the year to August compared with just 4 percent nationally.

“With major minerals projects and new housing developments on the horizon, our long-term prospects look much stronger than the forecasts suggest,” Milne said.

Migration is another bright spot.

“In 2024 alone, the Coast recorded a net gain of 400 people, with more and more choosing to move here for the job opportunities, affordability, and lifestyle,” Milne said. “That momentum isn’t yet reflected in long-term modelling, which still leans heavily on older historic trends.”

Housing, he added, will be critical to sustaining growth.

“With an ageing population, many homes are occupied by people no longer in the workforce, and the recent lift in migration has largely been absorbed into underutilised housing left from the last economic downturn. To continue attracting people, we’ll need more new homes built,” Milne said.

“Projects like Paparoa Views in Kaiata, which will deliver more than 150 new sections, are a step in the right direction.”

Grey District is already showing real progress, with Stats NZ reporting a 49.1 percent increase in new dwelling consents compared with a national decline of 0.1 percent.

“That’s a strong signal of confidence, but housing will remain one of the biggest constraints on our growth if supply doesn’t keep pace with demand.”

Young people are also a major focus.

“Like other regions, the West Coast struggles with young people moving away for study and work,” Milne said.

Each year, DWC offers four tertiary scholarships, worth up to $32,500 each, with financial support, summer work placements, and bonded employment back on the Coast after graduation.

“We’ve just completed interviews for this year’s intake, and the quality of applicants was outstanding. It’s encouraging to see so many talented young Coasters committed to coming back as nurses, engineers, vets, and other in-demand roles,” Milne said.

West Coast Population (2000-2024)

Source: Infometrics