West Coast surges to second place in regional economic scoreboard

The quarterly report ranks regional economic performance based on key indicators such as employment, construction, retail sales, house prices and population growth.

ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley said the latest results reflect the growing momentum in rural economies – with South Island regions claiming the top four spots.

“Rural New Zealand is doing the heavy lifting right now,” Tuffley said. “South Island regions are benefiting from strong commodity tailwinds and resilient export demand, especially across dairy, meat, forestry and horticulture.”

Canterbury topped the scoreboard for the first quarter of 2025, followed by the West Coast, Otago, and Marlborough. Tuffley said rural strength was also lifting broader sentiment across sectors like retail and housing.

The West Coast delivered one of its best results in years, rising to second place due to strong construction activity and a retail recovery, he said.

On the Coast, retail sales rose by 7.9% — the strongest increase of any region in the country — while construction activity jumped 75.8%, also leading the nation. House sales climbed 21.6%, compared to the national average of 14.3%, and house prices rose 1.3%, while the national trend was a 2.1% decline.

Development West Coast Chief Executive Heath Milne said the strong result was a welcome sign of renewed confidence.

“It is a strong signal that momentum is building across our economy,” Milne said.

“This quarter was a mixed bag — GDP fell 2.1% over the year to March, largely due to falling coal prices and the Tawhai tunnel closure disrupting exports — but on most other fronts, the Coast has outperformed the rest of the country.”

Employment on the West Coast grew by 0.1%, bucking the national decline of 0.9%, and the growth in Jobseeker numbers was significantly lower than the national average.

Milne said the region’s primary sector continues to play a crucial role.

“High dairy and meat prices are boosting rural incomes and flowing through to local spending. The dairy payout alone is forecast to hit a record $503 million, with lamb prices up 10% and beef up 15%.”

He also pointed to Grey District leading the country in residential building consents, with a 107% increase, compared to a national drop of 3.3%.

Milne said the Coast is laying foundations for long-term growth.

“With more than $19 billion in export potential across six mineral projects, there’s a real opportunity to strengthen GDP and build economic resilience.

"This will take a Coast-wide effort, with consents and other regulatory challenges to be overcome, along with significant financial and human capital required, not to mention logistics and other infrastructure support.”

The West Coast has also experienced a population turnaround, gaining 1,900 residents since 2018 — reversing a previous trend of decline.

“After a period of population loss, it’s encouraging to see more people choosing to live and invest here,” Milne said.

“The Coast needs these talented people to help realise the potential growth ahead.”