TECNZ: Assumptions and International Arrival Forecasts 2022-2025

TECNZ has updated its assumptions and international Arrival Forecasts 2022-2025 taking into account:

  • New border opening dates for Australian visitors returning from 13 April
  • Rest of World visitors returning (visa waive countries) like US, Canada, UK, Europe, Singapore etc from 2 May 2022
  • Forecasts still show China coming back from Jan 2023 or when the Chinese governments lifts its outbound travel restrictions.
  • By YE May 2025 TECNZ predict total annual arrivals will be back to 95.5% (3,231,198 visitors) of total pre-COVID annual arrivals (3.9million).

Slide 4 provides forecasts for the key markets Tourism NZ used to report against.

Slides 7 and 8 show the difference compared to 24 Feb 2022 forecast and now 31 Mar 2022 forecasts (with new dates).

The spreadsheets provide a lot more data.

  • By YE May 2023 annual no. of arrivals 1,901,60 = 64.6% (an 8.4% gain)
  • By YE May 2024 annual no. of arrivals 2,382,845 = 84.3% (a 13.9% gain)
  • By YE May 2025 annual no. of arrivals 2,820,009 = 95.5% (a 12.1% gain)

As with any forecast, there is an element of crystal ball gazing based on information on hand at the time. Over the past 6 weeks TECNZ had a lot of more intel shared with ITOs from their offshore partners and intel from TECNZ’s global counterparts from Australia, UK/Scotland, Europe, Ireland, South Africa and Transatlantic Canada. The recovery trends have been incorporated into the forecasts.

Here is a World Tourism Organization article on 2022 start: UNWTO article on start to 2022.

Tourism Export Council